former finance minister and economist say that Egypt is in a serious condition such as foreign investment and the collapse of tourism
Egypt suffers from its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, a former finance minister of the country and one of the leading economists have warned.
In terms of its devastating effects on Egypt's poor economic situation is the worst since the 1930s, Galal Amin, Professor of Economics at the American University in Cairo, and Samir Radwan, Minister of Finance in the months of 2011, the Egyptian uprising, said in separate interviews with the Guardian.
Since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in 2011, Egypt has experienced a drastic decline in foreign investment and tourism revenues, followed by a 60% decline in foreign exchange reserves, a decrease of 3% growth and the rapid devaluation of the Egyptian pound. All this has led to a proliferation of food prices, unemployment balloons and shortages of fuel and cooking gas - leading to the worst crisis in Egypt, Amin said, "unequivocally, since the 30"
"Nobody cares about the poor today," said Amin. During the crises in the 1960s until the mid-70s and late 80s, Amin Radwan Egypt argued that the poor were variously absolute poverty is protected by government subsidies, foreign aid, relatively low unemployment, or remittances from expatriates in the Gulf. But now, one in four young Egyptians are unemployed, remittances are low, and there is a shortage of subsidized goods.
"We are talking about almost half of the population is in a state of poverty," said Radwan, a development economist. "Whether in absolute poverty or near-poor, which means that any shock [economic] as inflation will fall below the poverty line." Currently, 25.2% of Egyptians live below the poverty, with 23.7% just above hover, according to figures from the Egyptian government.
For most Egyptians, rising food prices are the most critical problem. Some products have doubled in price since last fall - a disaster for a quarter of families already spend 50% of their income on food
For Hoda Goma, an architect of Cairo, the situation takes a toll on her two children eight years. "They get worse in school," he said. "They are sick more often. Han these black spots before his eyes and his teeth got worse. "
corresponds to your diet, explained Goma. You can not afford to feed them what they need. For six months he spent half of his salary on food. Now he says he is closer to four-fifths - not because they earn less, but because rising food prices show no sign of slowing down
"Prices are on fire," said the trader Walid Ali. Last week, Ali buy a kilo of mandarins by four Egyptian pounds - 40 British pence - wholesalers and sell them for six (60 pence). "Now, I buy and sell six to eight."
As a result, consumers are either buying less, or not buy at all. "It is impossible," said Ali. "I lost half of my clients. People can not afford to buy food." On the market of two floors in the center of Cairo, the top floor is completely empty. Neighbors said they all stall holders at the highest level had been forced to close in recent months.
inflated food prices are not a new phenomenon in a country that is the world's largest wheat importer, where the population has grown much faster than production, and where nearly half the Production is rotting in the heat on the way to market. But the recent inflation rate increased significantly by the dire economic situation in Egypt.
more problematic, the value of the Egyptian pound fell 12% against the dollar since December. For two years, the Central Bank of Egypt had used its foreign exchange reserves to stop the fall - but the reserves have fallen by 60% since 2011, the bank had to abandon the tactic of last winter. As a result, the value of the pound has dropped this year more quickly. In turn, it has become much more expensive to import foreign products - catastrophic for a country to purchase 60% of its wheat, and whose farmers also often rely on food fertilizer, fuel and imported animals
"They have a major crisis on their hands," said the EU envoy to Egypt, James Moran, who noted that foreign reserves in Egypt have fallen $ 36 billion ( 24 billion) three years ago to $ 14.4 billion months past "It gives coverage of imports of less than three months -. and an economy dependent on imports, which is very dangerous."
"We are suffering," said Ali Eissa, chairman of Nahdet Misr, a farm that grows potatoes and oranges on 3,000 hectares throughout Egypt. "He touched the majority of fertilizers, machinery, tractors. - All prices increased dramatically,"
- devaluation of sterling has also made it more difficult for the Egyptian government to import fuel. The state subsidized diesel (with products such as bread, cooking gas and fertilizer) and the dictatorship of Gamal Abdel Nasser. But these grants represent more than a fifth of the budget of Egypt, and with a budget deficit of 13%, the state can not afford to support the population level it had before. As a result, there is a daily lack bombs throughout Egypt, long queues - and sometimes deadly fighting
- "Last month, we did not find diesel," said Eissa, who was therefore obliged to resort to the black market, where it is said that fuel prices are between 40% and 80% higher than the statutory rate. "The worst thing is that most of the quantities on the black market are mixed with water -. D 'Breaking number of our machines, we need to change the filter, put the hand, stop watering, stop tractor. "
far Mohamed Morsi Islamist government tried to keep afloat Egypt with short-term measures. It has been accepted for loans and grants worth more than $ 5 billion of Gulf states such as Qatar and documents Fuel interesting to neighboring Libya. Domestically, it has avoided major economic reforms that can cause short-term disruption - perhaps for fear of riots similar to those seen in 1977 bread, when the then dictator Anwar Sadat first tinkering with subsidies temporarily. Instead, Morsi has focused on initiatives such as meaning higher taxes on imports of devices such as shrimp and nuts, or stores closing early in the evening to save electricity. Morsi also attempted to legalize the controversial
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