A slowing economy is bad news for the White House when the only growth area Mitt Romney speaks
The most watched economic indicator in the world is the monthly employment in the American situation. And the final report tells a dark story. Employment rose by only 69,000 in May, expectations disappointing employment growth would be closer to 150,000. The unemployment rate marked 8.1% to 8.2%. And perhaps most disappointing, reviews suggest that moderate increases over the last two months were lower than previously thought, and that job growth in April was revised down from 154 000 to 143 000 and in April, from 115,000 to 77,000.
Instead of being caught in the zigzag of each data point, it is preferable to adopt a slightly more distant perspective. And it is this: in the last three months, the number increased to an average of 100,000 jobs per month. This is the kind of rhythm that unemployment will remain more or less constant at its current level. The disappointment comes after a false start for the previous three months, while employment growth averaged more than 250,000. In addition, these employment figures continue a series of disappointing news from various business surveys in recent weeks.
The broader question is whether the U.S. economy has slowed, or is stagnation. The impact of European crisis have not been resolved, and its consequences for the United States are not yet clear. But more bad news from Europe surely weigh heavily on the U.S. economy in the coming months.
there is a glimmer of hope in all of this statistic. The employment report actually includes a survey of employers and a household survey. Titles focus on the first, because it is generally more accurate, but there is news in the second. The household survey, which is very "noisy", recorded a growth of 422,000 jobs. My rule of thumb is 80% by weight usually placed on the study of payroll and 20% by weight of the household survey. This calculation shows that the underlying rate of growth of employment was about 140,000 in May, which is close to the consensus forecast. However, it is clear that the rapid pace of employment growth at the beginning of this year has elapsed. And markets reacted strongly with the low bond yields ten years new plumbing below 1.5%.
There is a growing sector: the economic literature discussion points for Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate for president. Bad economic news is often seen as good news for the challenger, and Romney was happy to pile on, calling this part of a "cascade of bad economic news piece after another." In fact, Obama can still salvage something from the report: enough jobs have been created which can now point to positive growth in private sector jobs pay since he took office
- One might think that the news of a slowing economy could stimulate a response. However, the Fed is stuck with interest rates at zero, and seems reluctant to get involved in future actions. The European crisis has already pushed long-term bonds at extremely low levels, which limits the scope of quantitative easing to lower rates further. The only tool the Fed could afford to use more aggressive is their role in the creation of expectations: a statement that he remains committed to low rates for an extended period, or if you are willing to allow some inflation if the cost of stimulating growth may have a salutary effect.
- there is much more room for fiscal stimulus. Unfortunately, the Republican majority in Congress remains totally opposed to any initiative, and it may even be willing to impose austerity. Whether an economic calculation (although a fake), or a political calculation, remains uncertain.
- While a slowdown is a concern for the White House. More InTrade prediction market in political life, his chances for reelection were reduced by 57.7% on Thursday, up to 56% on Friday.
- The outline of the election debate on the economy are already clear. Obama will be able to point out, rightly, that the economy has improved under his watch. He inherited an economy in free fall after the financial crisis of 2008, and the unemployment rate is now almost two percentage points below its peak in late 2009. In other words, it will focus on the
- change in economic conditions. But Romney talk instead of
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