Friday, December 30, 2011

UK switch to low-carbon energy 'no dearer than doing nothing'

10:20 AM | Posted by Free Game Zone | | Edit Post

Prediction Calculator unique challenges of view reflecting the sustainable energy in higher costs

Each person in the UK have to pay around £ 5000 per year in 2050 for reconstruction and the use of the energy system of the entire nation, according to government figures. However, the cost of developing clean, sustainable energy, heating and transport will be very similar to the replacement of aging existing power plants and power clean, the analysis revealed.

Forecasts are from an analysis of sources open one package, called the calculator to 2050 titles, which was created by Professor David MacKay, Chief Scientific Officer of the Department of Energy and Climate change.

Suggestions predictions

challenge the costs of embracing low carbon energy and follow the legally binding commitments in the UK to counter global warming will top the bill would be to use traditional energy sources. They are also supported by a large EU project is the development of renewable energy was no more expensive than other alternatives.

"The calculator has the poison of the debate," said MacKay Guardian. "The bottom line is that any scenario that you choose should be added." He says the tool, built with the help of hundreds of experts and a thorough review of the literature, is used to help "make the policy of the open source", where anyone can see and question the assumptions and data used. "You can pretend to be secretary of state, and must make a plan that is very unpopular."

The calculator is used to create the three scenarios outlined in the plan of government officials carbon, which shows how the UK could meet its emissions targets for 2050, keeping the lights on, and test a "cost optimized" scenario, that is the cheapest.

do almost nothing to develop systems for low carbon energy - and the elimination of the objectives of UK carbon - would cost £ 4,682 a year, dedicated to the import of gas for generation of electricity and oil heating for all vehicles. That 13% of the average expected £ 35 000 in the period. In comparison, the scenario of cost-2050 is 84 pounds (1.8%) a year cheaper, and offers a combination of electric power with 42% renewable energy, nuclear energy 31% and 27% of gas plants with carbon captured and stored underground (CCS). It also provides improved energy efficiency, with demand for lighting and appliances fell by 60% compared to 2007 levels.

However, the cost of "do nothing" option does not include damage to the economy is expected due to climate change, calculator, and notes that the reference point Stern: "It's the equivalent of up to $ 6500 per person per year on average system costs of energy."

government "higher renewable energy, energy efficiency" scenario in which wind provides 55% of the total supply of electricity and all the cars and buses are powered by batteries or hydrogen fuel cells is expected to cost £ 368 a year (8%) more than the "do nothing" scenario, if the damages of climate change into account.

The "higher CCS, bio-energy" scenario is £ 470 (10%) rather than to do nothing, and requires the successful deployment of CCS on a commercial scale, and more be used and sustainable biomass to generate abundant "negative" emissions.

The final stage, "chief nuclear, less energy efficiency" is the most expensive, £ 499 (11%) rather than do nothing.
  • Some experts say that the analysis can not account for the major events in the future though. Professor Dieter Helm at Oxford University, believes that the costs of low carbon, high carbon energy scenarios necessarily be similar. "This [similarity] is in fact the result you get if you take the conventional wisdom on the prices of fossil fuels and we assume no significant technical progress. However, it is precisely these two assumptions that make the difference. "Helm said that the gas may become cheap and abundant, but also that progress in battery technology, transportation electrification, solar energy breathroughs - such as taking advantage of photosynthesis - and use of smart grid could reduce the costs of low carbon too. "The calculator is very interesting," said Helm.. "My opinion is that the achievement of cost estimates Detailed is an exercise in heroic and potentially very misleading "energy of the nation is roughly divided into three, said Mr. MacKay: transport, heating and electricity. However, the increased cost comes from transportation, such as "millions of individual messages, just to go around" - cars & trucks - the less energy efficient than large power plants
  • The new version of the calculator is the first to include the costs, a key element, according to MacKay ". You can not have a conversation on this issue without increasing costs, "He says that the tool is using as the equivalent in China, Portugal and Belgium.MacKay believes that the calculator has a key role in the assessment of the viability of different energy options. It describes the current government policy of supporting multiple technologies as sensitive "coverage." Groups of the National Network of Friends of the Earth have already posted their favorite scenes on the site of the calculator.
  • example, Mr. MacKay said: "An interesting question: what is the tradeoff between energy efficiency and building upgrades over the production capacity Want to good homes, or just build of new nuclear power plants?. In the calculator, people can choose. "
  • note however, that less expensive alternatives have to do with a very strong effort by increasing energy efficiency and waste reduction, since it is generally cheaper than building new power plants. Another example included in the government's Carbon Plan, is "How can the cost of a route change if, for example, nuclear costs are high and the cost of, say, renewable energy experts are as low think it's as reliable as possible? "
shale gas, which is currently being investigated in Lancashire and has pushed up prices in the United States, is not explicitly included in the calculator. However, it can easily be integrated, MacKay said, choosing a low gas prices in the model. There is a possible "positive future" when the board reductions in the price of domestic gas and ACC works, he said.

MacKay, a physics professor at the University of Cambridge, was appointed to the government in 2009, shortly after posting a surprise best-seller book called Sustainable Energy - without the hot air. "I was irritated by all the nonsense that we speak of energy and making comparisons misleading. I just wanted the number without the hype," he said. "I'm just the type numbers, trying to be helpful."

type of numbers to the feel of the publication
"I was distressed by the poor quality of debate on the energy that was also aware of greenwashing of politicians and big business that he was tired of the debate -. Extremism. NIMBYism, the bag "What, Professor David MacKay told the Guardian in 2009, so he wrote a book in his spare time called Sustainable Energy - without the hot air. He has published in pdf format for free on its website, where you can still download copies free of charge. However, this book written by experts, but not published so sold over 40,000 copies in print and have downloaded about 400,000 times. "The Guardian has a star," he said.


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